Media Advertising Must Adapt to Survive in 2009
Broadcasters, marketers and media buyers agree that, because we now live in a video-on-demand world in which consumers control what they watch and when, the broadcast advertising model is broken. And while the media industry is still sorting through their predicament on television, perhaps the even more troubling news is that, due to the tough economic conditions the world faces going into 2009, all indications are that online ad spending will dip over the next year. What can media companies and advertisers do in this floundering ad ecosystem? The short answer: they will have to change the way advertising is bought and sold, measured and delivered.
Traditional television audiences are eroding. In October, the four biggest broadcast networks reported declines in audiences between the ages of 18 and 49. Many analysts believe that those eyeballs are moving from television to online. Advertising Age, in a study on social networking and its impact on television, found that 25% of users of social networking sites like Facebook indicated they were spending less time watching TV because of the time they were spending online. And more than a third of all 12 – 64 year olds online indicated they used social networking sites regularly. With audiences being siphoned away from television, and using time-shifting digital video recorder (DVR) technology like TiVo to skip ads while they are watching TV, advertising dollars to be had in the broadcast medium are on the decline.
So media companies should simply follow their audiences online, right? The picture is not that clear. The current economic climate is eroding ad spending across the board. TechCrunch indicates that in the third quarter, Google, Yahoo, Microsoft and AOL collectively eked out only a 0.6% increase in online advertising revenue quarter over quarter. MediaPost.com reports that, while online ad revenue is up 11% year-to-date, compared to last year’s growth of 26%, growth has all but stalled in 2008. They predict that 2009 will be the first flat year for online ad spending since 2003. Others offer an even gloomier outlook. In a survey of attendees at AdTech New York, private equity firm Halyard Capital found most predicted digital-marketing budgets would be down 10-20% in 2009.
